TSLA
TSLA · US
TSLA Research Preview
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| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| **Price** | $309.22 | Down 1.22% on the session |
| **Daily range** | $304.28 - $317.00 | Intraday volatility ~4% |
| **Strategy score** | 51 / 100 | Neutral; Hold signal |
| **Trend** | Consolidation | No clear directional bias |
| **RSI14** | 46.77 | Neutral momentum |
| **MACD histogram** | +1.65 | Bullish crossover, but MACD line still negative |
| **Estimated support** | $369.90 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| **Estimated resistance** | $428.41 | Upper Bollinger Band |
| **30-session range position** | -77% | Near the low end of recent range ($368.60-$445.60) |
| **Data confidence** | Medium-High for technicals; Medium for valuation; Low for sentiment |
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| Indicator | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| **MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60** | 406.18 / 396.87 / 399.16 / 400.60 | Price 22.5% below MA20; all MAs clustered overhead-strong resistance zone |
| **MA crossover** | MA5 > MA20 (golden cross) | Bullish signal, but price has diverged far below the cross-lagging confirmation |
| **RSI14 / RSI6** | 46.77 / 44.18 | Neutral; neither oversold nor overbought |
| **MACD (line / signal / hist)** | -1.64 / -3.29 / +1.65 | Bullish crossover; histogram positive but MACD line remains below zero-momentum recovering but not yet positive |
| **KDJ (K / D / J)** | 59.79 / 54.75 / 69.87 | Constructive crossover; J > K > D suggests short-term upward bias |
| **Bollinger Bands** | 428.41 / 399.16 / 369.90 | Price at -104% of band width (below lower band)-statistically extended to the downside |
| **ATR14 / ATR14%** | 19.05 / 4.84% | Elevated volatility; daily swings averaging ~$19 |
| **OBV / 20-session slope** | 308 M / +7.64% | Accumulation improving despite price weakness-potential divergence |
| **CCI20** | 35.53 | Neutral band; no extreme reading |
Confirmed: Bullish MACD crossover, constructive KDJ, improving OBV accumulation. Conflicted: Price far below all MAs (bearish structure) while oscillators are neutral-to-bullish-classic divergence that can resolve either way. Missing: No custom indicators supplied; social-sentiment overlay unavailable.
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| Metric | Value | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| **PE** | 287.54 | SEC EDGAR | Medium |
| **PB** | 12.56 | SEC EDGAR | Medium |
| **Price / Sales** | 11.5 | SEC EDGAR | Medium |
| **EV / EBITDA** | 210.05 | SEC EDGAR | Low |
| **StockKit fair-value range** | Bear $9.88 / Base $11.84 / Bull $15.41 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| **Base fair-value gap** | -96.2% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| **5Y growth forecast** | Bear -8% / Base -4% / Bull +2% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| **Revenue (TTM)** | $94.83 B | SEC EDGAR | High |
| **Net income (TTM)** | $3.79 B | SEC EDGAR | High |
| **Market cap** | $1.09 T | Shares outstanding × live quote | Medium |
| **Balance sheet** | Assets $148.52 B / Equity $86.86 B | SEC EDGAR | High |
Interpretation: Traditional multiples (PE ~288×, EV/EBITDA ~210×) are extreme relative to broad-market averages. The StockKit DCF scenario model-using reported fundamentals and conservative growth assumptions-outputs a base fair value of ~$11.84, implying the current price embeds substantial optionality on robotaxi, energy, and AI initiatives not captured by trailing earnings. Investors should treat the fair-value gap as a model output, not a price target.
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| Date | Headline | Source | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | "Tesla Missed by 38% But Elon Musk Is Not Worried…" | Biztoc / Barchart | Confirms a significant earnings miss; management tone suggests focus on long-term initiatives rather than near-term deliveries. |
| 2026-07-26 | "Tesla Is Still Overvalued After Its 14% Post-Earnings Drop" | Biztoc | Reinforces valuation concern; aligns with elevated PE/PB readings. |
| 2026-07-26 | "Elon Musk Just Revealed a Quiet Win for Tesla's AI Ambitions" | Biztoc | Potential positive catalyst around AI/FSD progress; details thin-monitor for follow-up. |
| 2026-07-26 | "Dear SpaceX Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 6" | Barchart | Tangential (SpaceX, not TSLA), but Musk-related news can influence sentiment. |
Missing data: No official earnings-call transcript, guidance figures, or delivery numbers were supplied. Confidence in catalyst timing is therefore limited to headline inference.
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| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headlines | 5 headlines | Mixed: earnings miss negative; AI progress positive | Medium |
| Reddit / X / StockTwits | Not connected | No reading | Low |
| Local forums | Not connected | No reading | Low |
Summary: Headline sentiment is mixed-to-negative following the earnings miss. Without social-feed data, crowd positioning cannot be assessed. Treat sentiment conclusions with caution.
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| Scenario | Trigger condition | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Base (Consolidation)** | Price oscillates $305-$370 on average volume | Multiple tests of support/resistance without breakout; RSI stays 40-60 | Decisive close outside range on >1.5× average volume |
| **Upside (Relief rally)** | Close above MA20 (~$399) on rising volume; MACD line crosses zero | Follow-through above $428 (upper Bollinger); OBV continues rising | Rejection at MA cluster with volume spike; RSI fails at 60 |
| **Downside (Breakdown)** | Close below $369 (lower Bollinger / 30-session low) on heavy volume | Continuation toward $340-$350; OBV slope turns negative | Quick reclaim of $370 with bullish engulfing candle |
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| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Valuation compression** | PE 288×; StockKit base fair value ~$12 | Broader risk-off rotation; rising rates | Track 10Y yield, sector ETF flows |
| **Earnings momentum deterioration** | 38% miss cited in headlines | Next quarterly report; delivery data | Watch monthly delivery releases, margin guidance |
| **Volatility spike** | ATR 4.84%; post-earnings gap | Macro shock or Musk-related headline | Set alerts for ATR > 6%; monitor Twitter/X for Musk posts |
| **Liquidity gap** | Volume 49 M vs. 20-day avg 49 M-normal, but gaps can widen | Pre-market news on low liquidity | Use limit orders; avoid market orders at open |
| **Sentiment contagion** | Social feeds not connected | Viral negative narrative | Manually check Reddit r/TSLA, StockTwits if feasible |
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1. Price action at $369-$370 support: Does the lower Bollinger Band hold on a closing basis? 2. Volume profile: Is selling pressure (>1.5× average) persisting or fading? 3. MACD zero-line test: Does the MACD line cross above zero, confirming momentum shift? 4. OBV trend: Does the +7.64% 20-session slope remain positive? 5. Headline flow: Any follow-up on AI/FSD "quiet win" or delivery guidance? 6. Macro backdrop: Monitor 10Y Treasury yield and Nasdaq-100 for risk-appetite cues. 7. August 6 SpaceX event: Assess any spillover sentiment impact on TSLA.
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This research preview is generated from the supplied dataset, which includes SEC EDGAR fundamentals, live quote data, computed technical indicators, and publicly available news headlines. Social-sentiment feeds (Reddit, X, StockTwits) were not connected; conclusions in that area carry low confidence. The StockKit fair-value range is an internally computed scenario model output, not an analyst consensus target. Nothing in this document constitutes personalized investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Readers should verify data independently and consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能减弱
RSI14=47中性
在通道中部
价跌放量(1.5x)，抛压沉重
Tesla Missed by 38% But Elon Musk Is Not Worried. Here’s What TSLA Investors Should Make of That
Biztoc.com · 2026-07-26
Tesla Missed by 38% But Elon Musk Is Not Worried. Here’s What TSLA Investors Should Make of That.
Barchart.com · 2026-07-26
Tesla Is Still Overvalued After Its 14% Post-Earnings Drop
Biztoc.com · 2026-07-26
Dear SpaceX Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for August 6
Barchart.com · 2026-07-26
Elon Musk Just Revealed a Quiet Win for Tesla’s AI Ambitions
Biztoc.com · 2026-07-26
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.