中国中铁
601390 · CN
Now I'm putting together the report with the proper format.# 601390 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | 4.52 |
| Daily move | -1.74% |
| Strategy score | 60/100 (Buy) |
| Trend | Bull |
| RSI14 | 53.95 (neutral) |
| MACD | Line 0.01 / Signal -0.04 / Hist 0.05 (bullish config) |
| Support (est.) | 4.09 (+9.55% below price) |
| Resistance (est.) | 4.62 (+2.16% above price) |
| 30-session range position | +63.93% (range 4.13 / 4.74) |
| Data confidence | Medium on technicals/valuation; Low on news/sentiment |
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA (5/10/20/60) | 4.54 / 4.46 / 4.35 / 4.63 | MA5>MA10>MA20 aligned up; MA60 (4.63) still overhead. Mixed alignment, near-term bias up but longer MA is a cap. |
| RSI (14/6) | 53.95 / 59.16 | Neutral momentum, no overbought/oversold extreme. |
| MACD | 0.01 / -0.04 / 0.05 | 金叉 above zero axis; histogram positive but momentum described as weakening. |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 84.82 / 83.69 / 87.09 | Constructive crossover but elevated; J at 87 flags a stretched short-term reading. |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 4.62 / 4.35 / 4.09 | Price near upper band (82% of band), band width expanding. |
| ATR14 | 0.10 (+2.23%) | Moderate daily volatility; ~0.10 defines a realistic noise band. |
| OBV | -3.13B / slope +15.28% | Absolute OBV negative, but 20-session slope improving - accumulation trend firming. |
| CCI20 | 111.39 | Above +100, indicating strong upside momentum. |
Confirmed: The up-trend read is corroborated by the MA5>MA10>MA20 stack, MACD 金叉 above zero, CCI>100, KDJ crossover, and an improving OBV slope. These point the same direction.
Conflicted: Momentum breadth is uneven. RSI14 is neutral (53.95) and MACD momentum is flagged as weakening even while the configuration stays bullish. KDJ J (87.09), the 82% Bollinger position, and CCI>110 all read stretched near the 4.62 band, which sits below MA60 (4.63). Volume is -14.18% versus the 20-session average, so the current push lacks volume confirmation.
Missing: No divergence history or multi-session indicator trend beyond the OBV slope was supplied, so momentum durability cannot be fully assessed. No custom indicators were provided.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.33 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 0.35 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 7.79 / Base CNY 9.34 / Bull CNY 12.15 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | +106.6% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 1.09T | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 22.89B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.85 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 13.02 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +7.93% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +2.09% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The fair-value range and 5Y growth forecast are internally computed StockKit scenario outputs derived from public financial history, not analyst consensus targets. The +106.6% base fair-value gap is notable but should be read alongside the negative base-case growth forecast (-4.00%), which is a tension inside the model's own inputs. PE at 5.33 and PB at 0.35 (versus book value per share of 13.02) describe a low-multiple, below-book profile. Margins are thin (gross +7.93%, net +2.09%), consistent with the sector. PEG proxy was N/A and is omitted per instruction. EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.
| Category | Status |
|---|---|
| Confirmed news | None available from the configured source |
| Missing data | Full headline coverage and dated catalysts |
No current news items were returned. There is no confirmed headline, earnings date, or corporate event to anchor a catalyst view. Because the catalyst layer is empty, this section carries low confidence and the thesis rests on technical and valuation inputs alone. No headlines have been inferred or invented.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Social channels (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) are not connected, so no reading is drawn from them. Sentiment confidence is Low, and this dimension should not be weighted in the current setup.
| Scenario | Trigger condition | What confirms it | What invalidates it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds the 4.35 (MA20 / Bollinger mid) area and consolidates below 4.62 | Sustained trade between ~4.35 and 4.62 with RSI14 staying neutral (~54) and OBV slope holding positive | Loss of 4.35 on rising volume, or MACD histogram rolling negative |
| Upside | Confirmed break and hold above 4.62 resistance / Bollinger upper band | Close above 4.62 with volume returning toward or above the 20-session average (122.9M), MACD staying above zero, CCI holding >100 | Rejection at 4.62 with the -14.18% volume shortfall persisting; KDJ J (87) unwinding lower |
| Downside | Break below the 4.35-4.13 zone toward the 4.09 support / lower band | Close below 4.09 with expanding volume and MACD 死叉 | Reclaim of 4.35 and MA5 (4.54); OBV slope re-accelerating |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead cap at MA60 | MA60 at 4.63 sits just above the 4.62 resistance | Multiple rejections in the 4.62-4.63 zone | Watch for a decisive close above 4.63 before adding conviction to the up-trend read |
| Stretched short-term momentum | KDJ J 87.09, Bollinger 82% position, CCI 111.39 | KDJ crossing back down / price falling off the upper band | Track KDJ and CCI for cooling; treat 4.62 as a watch level, not an entry instruction |
| Weak volume confirmation | Current volume -14.18% vs 20-session average | Continued light volume on up-moves | Require volume normalization toward 122.9M to validate breakouts |
| Weakening MACD momentum | Histogram positive but momentum flagged as fading | Histogram contraction toward zero | Watch for histogram roll-over as an early trend-fatigue signal |
| Model vs growth tension | +106.6% base fair-value gap alongside -4.00% base growth forecast | - | Treat StockKit fair value as a scenario output, not consensus; weight it cautiously |
| Blind spots in catalyst/sentiment | No news and no connected sentiment feed | New headline flow appears | Re-check the news and sentiment sources before acting on any move |
1. The 4.62 resistance / Bollinger upper band - watch for a confirmed close above versus rejection. 2. MA20 support at 4.35 as the near-term line for the Base case. 3. Volume versus the 20-session average (122.9M); current reading is -14.18%. 4. MACD histogram (0.05) - watch for contraction toward zero. 5. KDJ J (87.09) and CCI20 (111.39) for signs of cooling from stretched levels. 6. OBV 20-session slope (+15.28%) holding positive as an accumulation check. 7. Any new headline or sentiment reading from the configured sources, which are currently empty.
This brief is generated from the supplied StockKit dataset for informational purposes only. It is not personalized investment advice and makes no promise or projection of returns. Levels cited are watch levels for monitoring, not instructions to trade. Technical and valuation inputs carry Medium confidence; the news and sentiment layers carry Low confidence because no headlines or connected social feeds were available. Fair-value and growth figures are internally computed StockKit scenario outputs, not analyst consensus.
MA5>MA20金叉
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能减弱
RSI14=54中性
接近上轨，带宽扩张中
缩量回调，可能企稳
Research boundary
StockKit organizes market data and model output for research workflows. It does not provide personalized advice or trade instructions. Verify important information with primary sources before any investment decision.