海康威视
002415 · CN
002415 Research Preview
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| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| **Price** | ¥36.46 | Near 30-session high |
| **Daily move** | −1.43% | Pullback from intraday high of ¥37.00 |
| **Strategy score** | 68/100 (Buy) | Moderately bullish composite |
| **Trend** | Bull | MA5 > MA10 > MA20 > MA60 |
| **RSI14** | 66.60 | Constructive, approaching overbought |
| **MACD histogram** | +0.20 | Positive and expanding |
| **Estimated support** | ¥32.55 | Lower Bollinger Band |
| **Estimated resistance** | ¥36.36 | Upper Bollinger Band (currently breached) |
| **30-session range position** | 78.94% | Upper quartile of recent range |
| **Data confidence** | Technical: High; Fundamental/News: Low |
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| Indicator | Reading | Signal | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| **MA structure** | MA5 35.80 > MA10 34.82 > MA20 34.46 > MA60 33.16 | Bullish | Full bullish alignment; price +5.81% above MA20 |
| **RSI14 / RSI6** | 66.60 / 76.79 | Constructive | RSI6 elevated; not yet extreme (>80) |
| **MACD** | Line 0.82, Signal 0.61, Hist +0.20 | Bullish | Golden cross intact; histogram positive above zero line |
| **KDJ** | K 77.52, D 68.07, J 96.42 | Bullish crossover | J-line extended (>90); watch for hook-down |
| **Bollinger Bands** | Upper 36.36 / Mid 34.46 / Lower 32.55 | Extended | Price at 103% of band width; band expanding |
| **ATR14** | 1.42 (3.84% of price) | Moderate volatility | Expect ±¥1.40 daily swings |
| **OBV** | 793.96M; 20-session slope +1,321% | Strong accumulation | Volume-confirmed rally |
| **CCI20** | 260.47 | Overbought momentum | Readings >200 historically precede consolidation |
Confirmed: Trend direction (bullish MA stack), momentum expansion (MACD, CCI), and volume confirmation (OBV slope, 2.7× average volume).
Conflicted: Near-term overbought signals (Bollinger breach, CCI >200, J-line >90) versus still-healthy RSI14 (<70).
Missing: No divergence signals detected; no custom indicators supplied.
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| Metric | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | AkShare / EODHD fallback | Low |
| PB | N/A | AkShare / EODHD fallback | Low |
| EV/EBITDA | N/A | AkShare / EODHD fallback | Low |
| PEG proxy | N/A | AkShare / EODHD fallback | Low |
| StockKit fair value range | N/A | StockKit scenario model | Low |
| Sector / industry context | N/A | AkShare / EODHD fallback | Low |
Analyst note: No configured fundamentals source returned usable valuation data for 002415. Consequently, this report cannot assess whether the current price reflects fair value, a premium, or a discount relative to earnings power. Any position sizing should account for this blind spot until updated financials are available.
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| Date | Headline | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| - | No current news items available | - |
Confirmed catalysts: None from configured sources.
Missing data: Earnings release date, guidance updates, regulatory filings, and sector news are unavailable. The absence of negative headlines is not equivalent to a positive catalyst; it simply reflects data-source limitations.
Implication: Price action is currently driven by technical and flow factors rather than identifiable fundamental news. Headline risk is elevated because any surprise announcement could move the stock sharply given the lack of priced-in expectations.
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| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | Neutral (no distribution) | Low |
| Social sentiment (Reddit, X, StockTwits, local forums) | Not connected | No conclusion drawn | Low |
Interpretation: Without headline or social-sentiment data, we cannot gauge retail or institutional narrative momentum. The strong OBV accumulation (+1,321% slope) suggests informed buying, but the driver remains unconfirmed.
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| Scenario | Probability | Trigger condition | Confirmation | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Base case: Consolidation near highs** | 50% | Price oscillates ¥34.50-¥37.00 over 5-7 sessions | RSI14 cools to 50-60; volume normalizes; MA20 catches up | Decisive close below ¥34.46 (MA20) on heavy volume |
| **Upside case: Breakout continuation** | 25% | Daily close >¥37.00 with volume ≥1.5× 20-day average | CCI remains >100; new 52-week high attempt toward ¥38.09 (30-session high) | Two consecutive closes back below ¥36.36 |
| **Downside case: Mean-reversion pullback** | 25% | Close below ¥34.46 (MA20) on rising volume | RSI14 drops below 50; MACD histogram turns negative | Reclaim of ¥35.80 (MA5) with volume expansion |
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| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Overbought reversal** | CCI 260, J-line 96, price 103% of Bollinger width | Failure to hold ¥36.36; bearish engulfing candle | Watch daily close relative to upper band |
| **Volume exhaustion** | Today's volume 2.7× average may be climactic | Sharp volume drop (>50%) on next up-day | Compare next-session volume to 20-day average |
| **Fundamental blind spot** | All valuation metrics N/A | Surprise earnings miss or guidance cut | Monitor company announcements, CNINFO filings |
| **Headline shock** | No news priced in | Unexpected regulatory or geopolitical headline | Set news alerts for "海康威视" and "Hikvision" |
| **Sector rotation** | No sector context available | Broad tech/security sector sell-off | Track CSI Tech index and peer names |
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1. Daily close vs ¥36.36 (upper Bollinger): Sustained closes above confirm breakout; closes below suggest consolidation. 2. Volume trend: Monitor whether follow-through days maintain ≥1× 20-day average (~109M shares). 3. RSI14 trajectory: A move above 70 without price acceleration warns of exhaustion; a pullback to 50-55 with price holding MA20 is healthy. 4. MACD histogram direction: Continued expansion is bullish; flattening or contraction signals momentum fade. 5. KDJ J-line: Watch for a hook below 80, which often precedes 2-3 day pullbacks. 6. News/filing alerts: Check CNINFO and company IR for earnings date, guidance, or material announcements. 7. 30-session high test (¥38.09): A breakout attempt here would be the next major technical event; failure could form a double-top pattern.
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This research preview is produced by StockKit's automated equity-research system for informational purposes only. It is not personalized investment advice. All technical readings are derived from the supplied dataset; valuation and sentiment sections carry low confidence due to missing source data. Levels cited are observational watch points, not trade instructions. Past price behavior does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct independent due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MA5>MA20金叉，多头排列
MACD金叉，MACD在零轴上方，动能增强
RSI14=67偏高
突破上轨，短期超买，带宽扩张中
价涨量增(2.7x)，走势确认
Research boundary
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