京东方Ａ
000725 · CN
I'm noticing the valuation model shows a fair value range of CNY 1.47-2.29, which sits well below the current price of 5.97-a significant 70.5% gap. That's unusual, but I'll present the data as provided while noting this reflects the scenario model's output. Now I'll structure the report section by section.# 000725 Research Preview
| Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| Price | CNY 5.97 |
| Daily move | +3.11% |
| Strategy score | 44/100 (Hold) |
| Trend | Bear |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 42.34 / 37.84 |
| MACD (line/signal/hist) | -0.24 / -0.03 / -0.21 |
| Estimated support | CNY 4.93 |
| Estimated resistance | CNY 9.27 |
| 30-session range | CNY 5.61-9.50 |
| Position within 30-session range | +9.25% (lower portion) |
| Data confidence | Medium (price/technicals); Low (news/sentiment) |
| Indicator | Reading | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MA5 / MA10 / MA20 / MA60 | 6.03 / 6.15 / 7.10 / 6.04 | Price below MA20 (-15.89%); short MAs above MA60 but MA20 elevated. MA cross scores 30/100 (Sell, MA5<MA20 death cross) |
| RSI14 / RSI6 | 42.34 / 37.84 | Soft but not washed out; neutral-to-weak, no oversold extreme |
| MACD | -0.24 / -0.03 / -0.21 | Bearish configuration below zero, histogram negative; momentum weak |
| KDJ (K/D/J) | 19.13 / 16.49 / 24.41 | Constructive crossover forming from a low band |
| Bollinger (U/M/L) | 9.27 / 7.10 / 4.93 | Mid-band zone, ~24% of band width; band expanding |
| ATR14 / ATR14% | 0.51 / +8.59% | Elevated realized volatility relative to price |
| OBV / 20-session slope | 37,140,692,835 / +15.20% | Accumulation improving despite weak price trend |
| CCI20 | -87.31 | Inside a neutral band, near lower edge |
Confirmed: the bearish trend read is corroborated by the MACD death cross below zero and the below-MA20 price position. Volatility is elevated (ATR14 +8.59% of price).
Conflicted: momentum indicators diverge. MACD is bearish while KDJ shows an early constructive crossover and OBV accumulation is improving (+15.20%), against price still below MA20. Volume is also conflicting - today's +3.11% move came on volume -49.83% versus the 20-session average, flagged in the score as "price up, volume down" (量价关系 55/100).
Missing: no custom indicators beyond the standard panel were supplied, so none are folded in here.
| Axis | Reading | Source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 37.31 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PB | 1.63 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| PEG proxy | N/A | StockKit scenario model | Low |
| StockKit fair value range | Bear CNY 1.47 / Base CNY 1.76 / Bull CNY 2.29 | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| Base fair-value gap | -70.5% | StockKit DCF scenario model | Medium |
| 5Y growth forecast | Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00% | StockKit scenario model | Medium |
| Revenue | CNY 204.59B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net income | CNY 5.86B | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| EPS | 0.16 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Book value per share | 3.67 | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Gross margin | +15.60% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
| Net margin | +3.35% | AkShare THS financial abstract | Medium |
The fair-value range and 5Y growth forecast are StockKit scenario-model outputs computed from public financial history, not analyst consensus targets. The Base fair-value gap of -70.5% reflects a model that assumes negative-to-flat 5Y growth (Bear -8.00% / Base -4.00% / Bull +2.00%); treat it as an internal scenario, not a price objective. PE 37.31 against a +3.35% net margin and 0.16 EPS is the observable fundamental anchor. PEG proxy is Low confidence and reads N/A. (EV/EBITDA, market cap, dividend yield, and 52-week range were not supplied and are omitted.)
| Item | Status | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Headline coverage | No current news items available from the configured source | No confirmed catalysts to weigh; near-term moves are more likely technical/flow-driven than news-driven |
No confirmed news is available, and no earnings dates, ratings, or corporate events are supplied. This section is low confidence on catalysts by absence of data - do not infer catalysts that are not listed.
| Source | Status | Reading | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| NewsAPI headline coverage | No headlines | No source distribution available | Low |
| Social sentiment | Not connected | No social sentiment conclusion is drawn | Low |
No provider sentiment series was returned for this symbol. Social feeds are not connected, so no Reddit, X, StockTwits, or local-forum readings are drawn. This section is low confidence.
| Scenario | Trigger conditions | What would confirm | What would invalidate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base | Price holds between support (CNY 4.93) and MA20 (CNY 7.10); Hold score 44/100 persists | Continued OBV accumulation (+15.20% slope) with RSI14 staying near 42 and range-bound action inside 5.61-9.50 | Sustained close below support CNY 4.93, or decisive break above MA20 |
| Upside | Reclaim of MA20 / mid-band CNY 7.10 with volume normalizing back toward the 20-session average (3.24B) | MACD histogram narrowing toward zero and KDJ crossover following through above the neutral band | MACD staying below zero with volume remaining depressed (-49.83% vs average) |
| Downside | Loss of the 30-session low CNY 5.61 and estimated support CNY 4.93 | MACD momentum increasing to the downside (consistent with 35/100 Sell) and RSI6 (37.84) rolling lower | Recovery back above MA5 (CNY 6.03) with improving volume |
| Risk | Evidence | Trigger | Monitoring action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend remains bearish | Trend = bear; price -15.89% vs MA20; MA5<MA20 death cross (30/100) | Failure to reclaim MA20 CNY 7.10 | Watch daily closes relative to MA20 and MA5 |
| Weak momentum | MACD -0.24 below zero, histogram -0.21 (35/100) | Histogram widening negative | Track MACD line vs signal daily |
| Thin volume on advance | Volume -49.83% vs 20-session average; "price up, volume down" (55/100) | Rallies failing on declining volume | Compare daily volume to 3.24B average |
| Elevated volatility | ATR14 +8.59% of price | ATR% rising further | Size expectations to the wider daily range |
| Valuation gap (model) | StockKit Base fair-value gap -70.5%; PE 37.31; net margin +3.35% | Growth forecast staying negative (Base -4.00%) | Re-check fundamentals on next AkShare update |
| No news / sentiment coverage | No headlines; social not connected | New catalysts appear unpriced | Re-poll news and sentiment sources |
1. MA20 / mid-band CNY 7.10 - the single most important reclaim/rejection level. 2. Estimated support CNY 4.93 and 30-session low CNY 5.61 - downside integrity. 3. MA5 CNY 6.03 - first sign of short-term stabilization. 4. MACD line vs signal and histogram - is bearish momentum easing or widening. 5. KDJ follow-through - whether the constructive crossover holds above the low band. 6. Daily volume vs 20-session average (3.24B) - confirmation for any move; note today's -49.83% shortfall. 7. News and sentiment sources - watch for first confirmed headlines, since none are currently available.
This brief uses only the supplied StockKit dataset. Technicals and price are Medium confidence; news and sentiment are Low confidence due to no available coverage; the fair-value range, PEG proxy, and 5Y growth figures are StockKit scenario-model outputs, not analyst consensus. This is not personalized investment advice, contains no return promises, and frames all levels as watch levels rather than instructions.
MA5<MA20死叉
MACD死叉，MACD在零轴下方，动能增强
RSI14=42中性
在通道中部，带宽扩张中
价涨量缩，上涨力度不足
Research boundary
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